31 Chapter 3: Methodology anyway, even if the program did not exist. For more information on the alternative education adjustment, see Appendix 8. The other adjustment in Table 3.1 accounts for the importation of labor. Suppose the Business program did not exist and in consequence there were fewer skilled workers in the region. Businesses still could satisfy some of their need for skilled labor by recruiting from outside Westchester County. We refer to this as the labor import effect. Lacking information on its possible magnitude, we assume 50% of the jobs that students fill at regional businesses could have been filled by workers recruited from outside the region if the Business program did not exist.23 Consequently, the gross labor income must be adjusted to account for the importation of this labor, since it would have happened regardless of the presence of the program. We conduct a sensitivity analysis for this assumption in Appendix 2. With the 50% adjustment, the net added labor income added to the economy comes to $18.6 million, as shown in Table 3.1. The $18.6 million in added labor income appears under the initial effect in the labor income column of Table 3.2. To this we add an estimate for initial non-labor income. As discussed earlier in this section, businesses that employ former students of SUNY WCC’s Business program see higher profits as a result of the increased productivity of their capital assets. To estimate this additional income, we allocate the initial increase in labor income ($18.6 million) to the six-digit NAICS industry sectors where students exiting the program are most likely to be employed. This allocation entails the process outlined above that maps the Business program completers to the detailed occupations for which those graduates have been trained, and then maps the detailed occupations to the six-digit industry sectors in the MR-SAM model. Finally, we apply a matrix of wages by industry and by occupation from theMR-SAMmodel tomap the occupational distribution of the $18.6 million in initial labor income effects to the detailed industry sectors in the MR-SAM model.24 23 A similar assumption is used by Walden (2014) in his analysis of the Cooperating Raleigh Colleges. 24 For example, if the MR-SAM model indicates that 30% of jobs in SOC 29-1141 (Registered Nurses) occur in NAICS 622110 (General Medical and Surgical Hospitals) in the given region, then we allocate 30% of the initial labor income effect under SOC 29-1141 to NAICS 622110. Table 3.2: SUNY WCC Business program alumni impact, FY 2021-22, undiscounted Labor income (thousands) Non-labor income (thousands) Total income (thousands) Sales (thousands) Jobs supported Initial effect $18,555 $10,435 $28,990 $54,790 243 Multiplier effect Direct effect $3,949 $2,261 $6,209 $11,889 56 Indirect effect $1,472 $880 $2,353 $4,553 21 Induced effect $6,422 $4,075 $10,497 $20,124 82 Total multiplier effect $11,843 $7,217 $19,059 $36,565 158 Total impact (initial + multiplier) $30,398 $17,652 $48,050 $91,356 401 Source: Lightcast impact model
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