68 Appendix 1: Sensitivity analysis Appendices to 6.0. The sensitivity analysis results for taxpayers and society show the same inverse relationship between the discount rate and the benefit-cost ratio. Retained student variable The retained student variable only affects the student spending impact calculation in Table 2.4. For this analysis, we assume a retained student variable of 10%, which means that 10% of SUNY WCC’s students who originated from Westchester County would have left the county for other opportunities, whether that be education or employment, if SUNY WCC did not exist. The money these retained students spent in the county for accommodation and other personal and household expenses is attributable to SUNY WCC. Table A1.5 presents the results of the sensitivity analysis for the retained student variable. The assumption increases and decreases relative to the base case of 10% by the increments indicated in the table. The student spending impact is recalculated at each value of the assumption, holding all else constant. Student spending impacts attributable to SUNY WCC range from a high of $15 million when the retained student variable is 15% to a low of $5 million when the retained student variable is 5%. This means as the retained student variable decreases, the student spending attributable to SUNYWCC decreases. Even under the most conservative assumptions, the student spending impact on the Westchester County economy remains substantial. Table A1.5: Sensitivity analysis of retained student variable % variation in assumption -50% -25% -10% Base case 10% 25% 50% Retained student variable 5% 8% 9% 10% 11% 13% 15% Student spending impact (thousands) $4,988 $7,482 $8,978 $9,976 $10,973 $12,470 $14,964 Table A1.4: Sensitivity analysis of discount rate % variation in assumption -50% -25% -10% Base case 10% 25% 50% Student perspective Discount rate 2.2% 3.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.9% 5.5% 6.6% Net present value (millions) $242 $189 $163 $148 $134 $116 $91 Benefit-cost ratio 6.0 4.9 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.9 Taxpayer perspective Discount rate 0.10% 0.15% 0.18% 0.20% 0.22% 0.25% 0.30% Net present value (millions) $27 $26 $26 $25 $25 $25 $24 Benefit-cost ratio 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 Social perspective Discount rate 0.10% 0.15% 0.18% 0.20% 0.22% 0.25% 0.30% Net present value (millions) $806 $797 $792 $789 $786 $781 $773 Benefit-cost ratio 6.74 6.68 6.65 6.62 6.60 6.57 6.51
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