65 Appendix 1: Sensitivity analysis Appendices Based on this sensitivity analysis, the conclusion can be drawn that SUNYWCC investment analysis results from the taxpayer and social perspectives are not very sensitive to relatively large variations in the alternative education variable. As indicated, results are still above threshold levels (a net present value greater than zero and a benefit-cost ratio greater than 1.0), even when the alternative education assumption is increased by as much as 50% (from 15% to 23%). The conclusion is that although the assumption is difficult to specify, its impact on overall investment analysis results for the taxpayer and social perspectives is not very sensitive. Labor import effect variable The labor import effect variable only affects the alumni impact calculation in Table 2.6. In the model we assume a labor import effect variable of 50%, which means that 50% of the county’s labor demands would have been satisfied without the presence of SUNY WCC. In other words, businesses that hired SUNY WCC students could have substituted some of these workers with equally-qualified people from outside the county had there been no SUNY WCC students to hire. Therefore, we attribute only the remaining 50% of the initial labor income generated by increased alumni productivity to the college. Table A1.2 presents the results of the sensitivity analysis for the labor import effect variable. As explained earlier, the assumption increases and decreases relative to the base case of 50%by the increments indicated in the table. Alumni productivity impacts attributable to SUNY WCC, for example, range from a high of $699 million at a -50% variation to a low of $233 million at a +50% variation from the base case assumption. This means that if the labor import effect variable increases, the impact that we claim as attributable to alumni decreases. Even under the most conservative assumptions, the alumni impact on the Westchester County economy still remains sizeable. Student employment variables Student employment variables are difficult to estimate because many students do not report their employment status or because colleges generally do not collect this kind of information. Employment variables include the following: 1) the percentage of students who are employed while attending the college and 2) the percentage of earnings that working students receive relative to the earnings they would have received had they not chosen to attend the college. Both employment variables affect the investment analysis results from the student perspective. Students incur substantial expense by attending SUNY WCC because of the time they spend not gainfully employed. Some of that cost is recaptured if students remain Table A1.2: Sensitivity analysis of labor import effect variable % variation in assumption -50% -25% -10% Base case 10% 25% 50% Labor import effect variable 25% 38% 45% 50% 55% 63% 75% Alumni impact (millions) $699 $583 $513 $466 $419 $350 $233
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